A valuable comment to one of my other blog posts triggered this text:
@Mario: you're having a good point. In the end, we'll have to look at the overall death statistics at the end of the pandemic to know which response was better with regard to the number of lives lost. In addition to that, we'll have to account for the number of healthy life years lost and many other factors. As of today, the average age of the Swedish COVID-19 victims is above the average life expectancy in Sweden.
Aside of the COVID-19 body count, there are certainly many things that I prefer about the Swedish approach. Politicians have a publicly known set of experts and act according to their recommendations in a transparent way. They have allowed a public debate and publicly admitted mistakes. For example, mistakes in the realization of their cocooning strategy led to loss of life that could have been avoided. This is very sad, but at least it is critically reflected upon in a transparent way so that the country and its government ensure learning. I doubt that it is valid to say that it was "the Swedish way" that led to the higher mortality. The way each country counts the fatalities is dramatically different. Would 60 other countries have picked the Swedish approach, we might well have seen some with very low fatality rates. Comparing a single pair of countries cannot possibly lead to an authoritative claim. Otherwise, when comparing Belgium and Sweden, one would have to say that an authoritarian lockdown leads to more fatalities. Of course, solely comparing this number is clearly not valid.
Taking into account that, for example, Sweden had low mortality in the 2019/20 cold and flu season until March, a higher excess during March, April and May is not completely unexpected, even without COVID-19. Temperatures were still freezing until last week in central Sweden. April has led to a very sad peak in mortality in Sweden, that is for sure. Nevertheless, the Swedish measures were very serious to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and as such, still successful compared with many other countries. Sweden always employed measures that their population could sustain over months or years, if needed. They never only optimized for the COVID-19 mortality but for the holistic goal of good long term public health. When comparing the grim 2017/18 cold and flu season from 1st of November 2017 to 30th of April 2018 with the same timeframe of 2019/20 (reduced by February 29th to maintain the same number of days), the latter actually had slightly less mortality, despite COVID-19 [1].
Given that Sweden optimized for overall public health and well being, there are definitely many positive things to note when looking at the past few months in Sweden. More than 1 million children continued their education without interruption. That alone is extremely valuable. The strain put on parents was small compared to Austria. Children in Sweden were not put at risk by the side effects of a lockdown. Far less people have to struggle and fear for their economic existence. For example, 418642 people were unemployed in Sweden at the end of April 2020 [2]. Definitely less than in Austria, despite a higher population and a much larger labor force. The need for short time working is impressively smaller in Sweden (544 183 on May 14th, 2020) compared to Austria [3].
As you see, there are at least some measurable, objectively positive outcomes of the Swedish approach compared to the Austrian one. For sure not all of them, but for the ones where Sweden did worse, they admitted mistakes and are honestly trying to learn from them instead of running a marketing campaign trying to sugarcoat their problems.
Hence, I dare to say one thing with certainty - on average, while Swedish children have also felt the crisis, they have struggled less than Austrian children since they were not isolated. And they do not have to wear face masks. Note that even the Austrian AGES clearly stated that no school or kindergarden were responsible for any of the identified infection clusters in Austria, even while no special measures for schools were in place [4].
So let me finally answer your question whether I still think the Swedish approach was better/smarter in any way. Since my children are clearly the highest priority in my life and for all of my decision making, I am 100% certain that at least in some way, the Swedish approach was and is better.
[1] https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkning/befolkningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/pong/tabell-och-diagram/preliminar-statistik-over-doda/
[2] http://qvs12ext.ams.se/QvAJAXZfc/opendoc.htm?document=extern%5Cmstatplus_extern.qvw&host=QVS%40w001765&anonymous=true%20&select=StartTrigger,1
[3] https://tillvaxtverket.se/om-tillvaxtverket/information-och-stod-kring-coronakrisen/statistik-om-korttidsarbete.html
[4] https://www.ages.at/service/service-presse/pressemeldungen/epidemiologische-abklaerung-am-beispiel-covid-19/
Mario - May 16, 2020 at 4:00 AM As of your writing the death toll was similar in both countries, but it developed drastically different after that. As of today Sweden hast 3.646 confirmed deaths and Austria 628.
Would you mind updating your post accordingly? Do you still think their way was better/smarter in any way?
@Mario: you're having a good point. In the end, we'll have to look at the overall death statistics at the end of the pandemic to know which response was better with regard to the number of lives lost. In addition to that, we'll have to account for the number of healthy life years lost and many other factors. As of today, the average age of the Swedish COVID-19 victims is above the average life expectancy in Sweden.
Aside of the COVID-19 body count, there are certainly many things that I prefer about the Swedish approach. Politicians have a publicly known set of experts and act according to their recommendations in a transparent way. They have allowed a public debate and publicly admitted mistakes. For example, mistakes in the realization of their cocooning strategy led to loss of life that could have been avoided. This is very sad, but at least it is critically reflected upon in a transparent way so that the country and its government ensure learning. I doubt that it is valid to say that it was "the Swedish way" that led to the higher mortality. The way each country counts the fatalities is dramatically different. Would 60 other countries have picked the Swedish approach, we might well have seen some with very low fatality rates. Comparing a single pair of countries cannot possibly lead to an authoritative claim. Otherwise, when comparing Belgium and Sweden, one would have to say that an authoritarian lockdown leads to more fatalities. Of course, solely comparing this number is clearly not valid.
Taking into account that, for example, Sweden had low mortality in the 2019/20 cold and flu season until March, a higher excess during March, April and May is not completely unexpected, even without COVID-19. Temperatures were still freezing until last week in central Sweden. April has led to a very sad peak in mortality in Sweden, that is for sure. Nevertheless, the Swedish measures were very serious to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and as such, still successful compared with many other countries. Sweden always employed measures that their population could sustain over months or years, if needed. They never only optimized for the COVID-19 mortality but for the holistic goal of good long term public health. When comparing the grim 2017/18 cold and flu season from 1st of November 2017 to 30th of April 2018 with the same timeframe of 2019/20 (reduced by February 29th to maintain the same number of days), the latter actually had slightly less mortality, despite COVID-19 [1].
Given that Sweden optimized for overall public health and well being, there are definitely many positive things to note when looking at the past few months in Sweden. More than 1 million children continued their education without interruption. That alone is extremely valuable. The strain put on parents was small compared to Austria. Children in Sweden were not put at risk by the side effects of a lockdown. Far less people have to struggle and fear for their economic existence. For example, 418642 people were unemployed in Sweden at the end of April 2020 [2]. Definitely less than in Austria, despite a higher population and a much larger labor force. The need for short time working is impressively smaller in Sweden (544 183 on May 14th, 2020) compared to Austria [3].
As you see, there are at least some measurable, objectively positive outcomes of the Swedish approach compared to the Austrian one. For sure not all of them, but for the ones where Sweden did worse, they admitted mistakes and are honestly trying to learn from them instead of running a marketing campaign trying to sugarcoat their problems.
Hence, I dare to say one thing with certainty - on average, while Swedish children have also felt the crisis, they have struggled less than Austrian children since they were not isolated. And they do not have to wear face masks. Note that even the Austrian AGES clearly stated that no school or kindergarden were responsible for any of the identified infection clusters in Austria, even while no special measures for schools were in place [4].
So let me finally answer your question whether I still think the Swedish approach was better/smarter in any way. Since my children are clearly the highest priority in my life and for all of my decision making, I am 100% certain that at least in some way, the Swedish approach was and is better.
[1] https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkning/befolkningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/pong/tabell-och-diagram/preliminar-statistik-over-doda/
[2] http://qvs12ext.ams.se/QvAJAXZfc/opendoc.htm?document=extern%5Cmstatplus_extern.qvw&host=QVS%40w001765&anonymous=true%20&select=StartTrigger,1
[3] https://tillvaxtverket.se/om-tillvaxtverket/information-och-stod-kring-coronakrisen/statistik-om-korttidsarbete.html
[4] https://www.ages.at/service/service-presse/pressemeldungen/epidemiologische-abklaerung-am-beispiel-covid-19/
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